Brighton's got another young midfield gem

Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Sebastian Bush.

Sebastian is a Data Analytics Intern with the Syracuse men’s soccer team and studies Sport Analytics at Syracuse’s Falk College. Previously, his work has been published in Sounder at Heart and American Soccer Analysis, and he regularly shares NWSL and MLS data visualizations on Twitter. He is from the Pacific Northwest and passionately supports the US and Colombian national teams in equal measure.

Previously, Sebastian wrote for us about some young Premier League attacking midfielders on the rise. Today, he profiles a young box-to-box midfielder starting to make a big impact at Brighton.

A frustrating start to the season gave way for a string of good performances and a backheel flick to set up Danny Welbeck at Anfield. Yasin Ayari’s confidence has skyrocketed over the last two months and it has paid dividends: the 21-year-old is beginning to play a key role in Fabian Hurzeler’s squad and is already cementing himself in the Swedish national team.

From lunging tackles to clever tricks, Ayari is a dynamic, fun-to-watch midfielder who has quickly and silently become a top prospect within the Brighton squad. Last season he was relegated to Carabao Cup games; this season he’s starting against Liverpool and Manchester City. And just last month, in his second-ever competitive call-up for senior international football, Ayari scored his first goal for Sweden in spectacular manner:

If Ayari proves to be of the same caliber as previous midfielders in a long line of Brighton-formed prospects — Alexis MacAllister, Moises Caicedo, Yves Bissouma — he will certainly be one to watch in the coming months.

What is Yasin Ayari good at?

Three years ago, Yasin Ayari signed a first professional contract with his boyhood club, AIK, and within a year and a half, he was already gone. Having seen something special in the bright, versatile midfielder, Brighton signed him for just north of £3 million, already anticipating the departure of Moises Caicedo.

Ayari wasn’t exactly a like-for-like replacement for the Ecuadorian, nor is he a stand-in for Alexis MacAllister, either. He’s far from reaching the current level of either, but he’s an amalgamation of the two ex-Seagulls in raw ability, possessing Caicedo’s defensive work rate and MacAllister’s creative tricks.

One of Ayari’s best attributes is his tackling — he ranks highly in Defensive Action OBV and regularly runs the length of the field to stop the counter with a strong challenge. That isn’t to say he’s purely a defensive midfielder, however. Most recently, Ayari has been deployed as an 8/10, filling in alongside Jack Hinshelwood or Carlos Baleba and offering an attacking outlet in midfield.

While he’s not a progression-forward player, he often finds himself drifting between lines and making himself open to receive passes; he averages 4.94 progressive receptions per 90. And while he may not consistently show it, Ayari can certainly unlock defenses, as he showed against Liverpool earlier this month. One of many highlight moments came in the 27th minute when he received the ball near the top of his box and carried it forward, with MacAllister ahead reluctant to apply pressure. 

Given the time and space, Ayari curls his body around the ball, sending one right past the full-sprint Virgil van Dijk and into the path of Georginio Rutter, setting up an ideal 1v1 opportunity.

Of course, van Dijk catches up and shoulders Rutter, sending his off-balance shot right into Caoimhín Kelleher’s trailing foot. Nevertheless, the pass was flawless.

While we have yet to see this level of play week-in-week-out from Yasin Ayari, perhaps the greatest takeaway from his game against Liverpool was the courage on display. Not only did he attempt — and pull off — the aforementioned backheel flick, but in the 54th minute, after taking a heavy touch into the path of a towering Joe Gomez, Ayari threw himself to the ground in a stunning sliding challenge, winning the ball back and sparking a counter-attack in the process. The audacity to perform such a move against a Liverpool center-back, at Anfield no less, shows you just the player Ayari is: fearless and unrestrained.

Areas to improve

Unfortunately, the downside of such a demeanor on the pitch is that Ayari’s actions can sometimes border on reckless. Tackling, one of his strong suits, can easily turn disastrous when he loses control — especially in his own box. While he’s only been yellow-carded twice this season, he’s had his fair share of close calls, including a moment against Wolves a few weeks ago when Ayari slid to block a pass in the box, missed completely, and took out two players in the process (one his own teammate). While no penalty was called, it just goes to show how quickly his voracity on defense can become a liability if he’s not careful.

Perhaps his largest weakness, however, is one that is difficult to fault him for. Like many other attacking-minded midfielders, especially those with an eye for show-stopping passes, turning the ball over frequently is a fact of life. Ayari is no different; the flipside of his stunner against Liverpool is when it doesn’t come off quite right — like against Manchester City on November 9.

In the 22nd minute, with the game still tied 0-0, Ayari found himself between two City midfielders and attempted to thread a perfect through ball to a clearly offside Rutter. Kovacic, waiting, easily intercepted the pass and sprinted right by a flat-footed Ayari before playing his own through ball to the feet of Haaland, releasing the forward to open the scoring for the visitors. Ayari was taken off at half-time, with his replacement, Carlos Baleba, winning Player of the Match after a stunning two-goal comeback in the last 15 minutes of the game.

Finally, Ayari will need to start converting potential into end-product to really catch the attention of rich clubs this season. While he averages 0.34 xG+xA per 90, good for seventh among Brighton players, he’s yet to register one direct goal contribution. While that’s not entirely his fault (see: Rutter’s aforementioned miss versus Liverpool), and that conversion will come with time, it’s definitely an area he’ll need to improve on given the crowded midfield core he’s contending with.

Brighton know what they’re doing

Perhaps the most promising part of Yasin Ayari’s rise is that he plays for Brighton. While that doesn’t necessarily ensure future stardom, it does certainly provide far more incentive for clubs to buy into his potential — a simple reminder of those who came before him will perk the ears of any team willing to take a gamble. Ayari has yet to fully “break out” like MacAllister and Caicedo did before him, but that may not even be necessary; clubs are increasingly hesitant to spend upwards of £100m on a star player when they have the chance to buy them a year earlier for a much lower sum (unless you’re Manchester United), so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team try their luck on a young talent like Ayari.

It may not even be a rich team that goes in for him, either. Brighton’s status in the transfer market is such that any young player with a few appearances under their belt and a promising profile is considered a “rising star.”

In the past, these players got time; Marc Cucurella, Ben White, Yves Bissouma, and even Robert Sánchez were all fully developed when they left Brighton for greater stages, but more and more, clubs will want to get in on the action before they’re priced out — especially the mid-sized ones just outside the “Rich Six” but not quite in it. The West Hams, Villas, and Newcastles of the world (let alone those abroad) can’t afford a full-fledged Moises Caicedo, but they can afford an unproven one.

As of right now, Ayari may not be destined for the biggest clubs in England, but his underlying numbers are extremely good and given his two-way profile, he’s bound to be on the radar of teams hoping to strike gold.

Brighton will keep developing: they have plenty of up-and-coming midfielders on their books and will certainly find another 18-year-old to fill the gap. Whether Fabian Hurzeler sees Yasin Ayari as a long-term part of the squad or a youngster to trot out is yet to be seen, but he’s a quality player with a price tag that will only increase the more he plays. Don’t be surprised to see Ayari snapped up before he’s truly had a chance to make Brighton his home.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”