A great lefty center back is hard to find

Hey friends! If you’re a recent subscriber, you might have missed some of our analysis on recent transfers and rumours. You can check out our archives here. We also have a podcast, where Ted talks to smart and interesting people in football. Today’s episode is a conversation with Patrick Van Straaten, which features some more in-depth discussion on recent newsletter topics.

Today’s newsletter: Why teams can’t just move on from left-footed center back targets.

Every team that doesn’t currently have a left-footed center back would badly like to add one. Two that have been in the news recently are Bologna’s Riccardo Calafiori and Everton’s Jarrad Branthwaite. Gianluca di Marzio says Arsenal are the team with the most concrete interest in Calafiori, while the Manchester Evening News are reporting that Man United had a £35 million bid for Branthwaite rejected.

Calafiori looks like the safer bet among these two players of the same age, from similarly styled defensive teams, likely to be sold for similar prices. But that’s with the caveats that Bologna was a much better all-around team than Everton last season, and that Branthwaite probably has the much higher ceiling in the air with a bonus 3 inches (5 cm) of height.

A fee in excess of £35 million might sound like a mild overpay for a center back with only one year of experience as a top flight starter and quite a few remaining question marks around their game. But there aren’t a ton of quality left-footed center backs to go around, which is why teams won’t just move on to their next target after getting quoted a price they don’t like on Calafiori or Branthwaite.

It’s not a secret that left footed players are more rare than righties, and therefore more valuable. I was wondering exactly how rare, since we hear this conventional wisdom parroted frequently without anyone giving out an actual number. So I looked it up.

Out of 392 central defenders that got 600+ minutes in Europe’s top 5 leagues last year, 110, or 28%, played a majority of their passes with their left foot. There are roughly three times more viable right-footed center back signings than lefties for a club at any given time. Even clubs with big budgets and good recruitment setups regularly fail to find a lefty CB who fits their budget and is good enough to start for them.

I’m not sure exactly how much having a true left footer at left center back enhances a team’s build-up play vs. having a player who is reluctant to play with their left. It’s not impossible to quantify and analyze, but it would take me more than the couple of hours I have to research and write this newsletter. If you’re on the lookout for a research paper topic ahead of an upcoming analytics conference contest, this might make a fascinating topic with real world application (if this paper already exists, please send it to us!).

But if you ask any coach, especially ones that put a very high priority on their center backs’ ability to control and progress the ball, they’re going to tell you that having a lefty center back matters a lot. Every coach is begging their director of football to get them a lefty CB if they don’t have a reliable one right now. There’s a reason Manchester City somewhat controversially paid so much for Nathan Ake, and why Levi Colwill isn’t among the myriad of Chelsea youngsters rumoured to be up for sale.

I don’t think these deals will be resolved soon because Bologna and Everton know what they have. Teams will not simply move on to the next target. The selling clubs will not get caught bag holding. Someone’s going to pay up eventually.

—KM

Rumours and news

• Fulham have agreed to sell Joao Palhinha to Bayern Munich for a fee potentially rising to €56 million. He’s a truly elite ball winner, but average as a ball progressor. He’s also about to turn 29, though that means he’s currently 28. He’s 28 until he turns 29! Anyway, seems desperate from Bayern.

• Jorgen Strand Larsen has joined Wolves on loan with a potential obligation to buy. Kim clocked this in the announcement, which is a fascinating clause: “First I've heard of the obligation to buy being triggered if he doesn't play enough, but I love that from Celta Vigo. Tank his value and it's your problem.”

• Chelsea are intent on keeping Nico Jackson, which makes a lot of sense to me. The Premier League having Jackson and Darwin roaming around on the pitch makes life better for every neutral fan watching the game. Also, look at this shot map…. So. Many. Throughballs!

• If Nico Williams moves at all, it’s supposedly going to be to Barcelona and not London. Same, Nico. Same.

• Romano is reporting West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus had a release clause worth £85M that has now expired. I kind of love the optimism on that one.

• Southampton are ready to make a £20M bid for Celtic’s Matt O’Riley. Aha! Now we are in range. Atletico Madrid were said to turn down £35M earlier in the summer, which made sense. We figured 20-25M would probably be the right price for Baba O’Riley to move to the Premier League.

• Zirkzee rumours are still floating around. interest from some bigger clubs has been real, but the sticking point is the giant commission his agent is asking for. We did some analysis on him way back in the first post.