A Nottingham Forest vibe check

While taking a peek at a draft of the betting column, I saw that Ted likes Nottingham Forest +0.5 at home against Manchester City this weekend. I had the thought that I’d have trouble trusting the math on this one, in the event I was laying an amount of money that mattered to me on this game. (I have never bet more than $1 on anything, but if you like actually gambling, check out the premium newsletter).

This gave me the thought that we should probably do a little vibe check on Forest, for non-gambling purposes. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5 games in the Premier League and their goal differential is down to +11, but they’re still hanging out at 3rd place in the table. Last week’s 0-0 draw against Arsenal featured an excellent defensive performance, and I guess it wouldn’t be too shocking to see them duplicate that against a City team that is definitely worse than Arsenal when Erling Haaland and Rodri are unavailable.

That Forest have managed to stick in the top 4 for so long with such an average attack is pretty remarkable. I’m also impressed by how close to exactly mid this team is at everything.

Given their most notable defensive performances and the hype that their center backs get, I’m actually surprised that Forest’s defensive numbers aren’t a little stronger than this. All of the pressing-related numbers being in the basement are both expected and funny, but I thought the xG conceded would be a bit better.

One of the most enjoyable players to watch on Forest this season has been young midfielder Elliot Anderson, who arrived from Newcastle this summer for £35m as part of a PSR scramble. Much like Yankuba Minteh, who was sold to Brighton at a discount for the same reason, this guy is going to make the Magpies regret their financial mismanagement. Anderson is a fantastic all-around 8, giving his team just as much value defensively as he is carrying the ball forward, and he’s definitely an adequate passer.

Chris Wood is the biggest story to come out of this team, putting up goal numbers similar to Alexander Isak and Erling Haaland at age 33. You will be utterly unsurprised to learn that he’s significantly overperforming his xG. Please do not take this as a typical stats nerd hating on a cool story situation — I enjoy watching Wood and think that he is playing very well — but this is about as hot as you’re ever going to see someone run. Enjoy it while it lasts.

At center back, the Batman and Robin duo of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo are the backbone of the team and deserve all of the praise they get. Finding the aerially dominant Milenkovic to pair with the shorter, but elite ball-playing Murillo was a genius piece of recruitment, and they’d make a great partnership for a rich club too. I hope Forest do make Champions League, if only to give them a chance of keeping these two together for another season.

So, what to make of Forest’s prospects for sticking in the top 5? I have to be honest, I’m not feeling great about it. Recent results feel like Forest coming back towards where they should be given their overall talent level. They’ve been overperforming their xG differential by a lot. I do not think this team has the juice.

This is not in any way a criticism of the club. They’ve done incredibly well to improve the team on a bottom half budget and become a genuine top half side. They’ve got a great platform to build on into next season. But City, Chelsea and Newcastle are coming for their spot.

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Games we’re watching

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Mainz — Well hello there Mainz, I hardly noticed you sneaking into a top 4 spot. They’ve won 3 in a row while Leipzig and Dortmund have struggled, and now look like pretty significant favorites to beat those richer clubs to a CL place.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal — Probably an outrageously dull 1-0 win for the Gunners, but when you see these two badges next to each other on the schedule, you’ve got to watch.

Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano — Trap game alert. Real might be trying to rest some players. Rayo are sneaky decent this year, and as a Madrid-area club, this is their game of the season.

Juventus vs. Atalanta — Atalanta are technically still in the Serie A title race. I am not a crank.

Nice vs. Lyon — Lyon might be a bankrupt club with a suspended manager, but that also means they have a lot of players who are going to get sold this summer, so get scouting.

Stuff we’re reading

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN ranked the top 50 players in the Prem so far this season, go tell him why he’s wrong.

Matt Pyzdrowski at The Athletic breaks down Alisson Becker’s sensational Champions League performance against PSG.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football asks how screwed Manchester United are (extremely).

Kieron O’Connor at Swiss Ramble digs into Brighton’s finances, which unsurprisingly, are pretty good.

Nick Harris at Sporting Intelligence has the story of the rich Americans negotiating to buy Rangers.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted details how good Mika Biereth has been for Monaco (which we called as a good signing in January).

Marcel Seifeddine at Total Football Analysis analyzed the throw-ins at Puszcza Niepołomice, a club I had not heard of until today. However, it is very much Our Brand to promote any detailed throw-ins analysis.

Flo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback argues against the WSL ending promotion and relegation.

Ya Girl at The Guardian wrote about the teenage midfielders who are going to define Emma Hayes’ USWNT tenure.

The Absolute Homies at American Soccer Analysis are doing previews for every NWSL team. This includes me, noted American Soccer Analyst. I’ll have a couple teams next week.

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