5 attacking profiles that made me go "hmm, that's interesting"

I’ve decided to switch up the usual Friday format this week due to the holidays. A lot of our friends who we link in the “What We’re Reading” section haven’t written in a couple weeks, and there aren’t as many games to watch with several leagues on winter break. We’ll be back to the usual next Friday.

The holiday break also me out of narrative-following mode. So I did what I always do when I don’t have a clear topic in mind for the newsletter: Sort some stats columns and look for weird stuff. And today, I found 5 Premier League attackers that have something interesting going on with their game this year.

Before we get going, Ted has his bets for the Premier League out on the premium newsletter, and the Championship ones will be coming out shortly. There’s a lot on games you shouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole this week thanks to injury and suspension issues.

If you’d like some insight into the thought process of a professional gambler and you want to learn how to make smarter betting decisions, rather than just some picks thrown at a wall like most gambling-related newsletters do, you can upgrade here. —KM

Dango Ouattara — I apologize, I wasn’t familiar with your game

Bournemouth are overperforming expectations in 7th, and actually underperforming their xG by quite a bit — Understat has them on 35 expected points to their 30 real ones. Antoine Semenyo has probably been their best player, and has deservedly captured a lot of attention. Same for big money signing Evanilson and long-serving midfielder Lewis Cook. But the less discussed Dango Ouattara is also having a breakout season.

This is Ouattara’s 3rd season with the club, but the first where he’s been consistently productive. He had some excellent flashy highlights last season, but not enough regular shot creation. This year, he’s both getting his own shots off and setting them up for his teammates.

Ouattara might be on big clubs’ radars because he’s a very two-footed player, though he prefers his left. He’s a good crosser from the left, or cut-in shooter from the right, and he’s even played a bit of wingback in a back 3 system before.

Jhon Duran — Who’s going to take the plunge?

Jhon Duran’s early season goal-scoring run was clearly not sustainable, and as expected he’s cooled off a bit. But he’s still playing very well for Aston Villa, besides the red card he picked up recently. He might be overperforming his xG considerably, but anyone would love to see their 21-year-old striker put up this kind of xG per 90 off the bench.

The problem is that whole bench thing. Duran’s getting to the point in his career where he’s not going to be satisfied being a rotation option much longer. Villa aren’t going to reduce Ollie Watkins’ role anytime soon, and they’re in negotiations to sign Donyell Malen from Borussia Dortmund. All signs point to the Villans cashing in on Duran, even if they gave him a new contract 2 months ago.

Please take this with the largest possible grain of salt, but Colombian publication Antena2 says Villa rejected a £45m bid from Arsenal, and has set Duran’s asking price at £70m. If Duran continues to put up similar shot and goal numbers for the rest of the season, I think they’ll get it. I would personally be too risk-averse to recommend such a thing, but he’s got the kind of highlights that makes football chairmen’s eyes pop out of their skulls like a cartoon wolf while they make AWOOGA noises.

Ismaila Sarr — Well that snuck up on me

When Palace signed Sarr in the summer, it looked like a pretty typical B- grade transfer. Nothing silly, nothing exciting. A solid but unspectacular prime-age winger at a reasonable price. But right now, he’s the guy saving their season.

Palace got off to a terrible, though unlucky start to the campaign. Sarr came off the bench in 7 of their first 8 games. But he’s been excellent since getting handed a starting role, and has been unlucky not to assist more, with his teammates failing to finish off some of his best assists.

If he keeps putting the ball on his striker’s feet in the 6-yard box, surely they have to start scoring eventually. Right?

Harry Wilson — 5 goals, nothing else

Wilson is one of the Premier League’s top xG overperformers, with 5 goals from 2 xG and just 20 total shots. But the even more surprising thing is his profile outside of the shooting. He doesn’t do anything else.

Wilson being not just a shoot-first winger, but almost a shoot-only one, is a new development. Previously, he was a pretty well-rounded player, one who provided reasonable dribbling, passing and shooting output without being spectacular at any of them. He’s been pretty poor outside of… being the 2nd leading scorer for a team that is significantly overperforming expectations. OK!

Jadon Sancho — A guy with a different history would change positions

For a guy that Manchester United couldn’t wait to bin, Jadon Sancho has been performing pretty well for Chelsea. His playmaking has definitely enabled Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson to put up huge numbers. And with those two next to him, you’d expect Sancho to not shoot very often. But it’s kind of amazing how little of a goal threat he is.

Because Sancho has the history he does with his performances at Borussia Dortmund and his giant transfer fee to United, he’s generally not a guy that you’d think of as needing to change positions. But if you saw this statistical profile on a Cobham academy graduate with no England caps yet, you’d think, should this guy play central midfield or fullback instead?

Sancho’s ability to create his own shot is only going to get worse with age, but his playmaking vision from deeper areas on the pitch should theoretically improve. Bookmark this post for when a coach figures this out in his age 29 season.

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