3 young attacking mids on the rise

Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Sebastian Bush.

Sebastian is a Data Analytics Intern with the Syracuse men’s soccer team and studies Sport Analytics at Syracuse’s Falk College. Previously, his work has been published in Sounder at Heart and American Soccer Analysis, and he regularly shares NWSL and MLS data visualizations on Twitter. He is from the Pacific Northwest and passionately supports the US and Colombian national teams in equal measure.

Morgan Rogers has had one hell of a year. Last summer — after playing for relegated Blackpool with just one goal and one assist while on loan from Manchester City — Rogers was purchased by Middlesbrough for just under a million pounds. He found success there, with the Boro sitting in third by January. Then, Aston Villa swooped in, paying eight times the fee paid for him six months earlier and bringing Rogers to the Premier League, where he’s proven he belongs. He appeared in 11 games to close out last season and has started 7-of-7 to begin the 2024-25 EPL campaign. There is no doubt about it now: Morgan Rogers is Aston Villa’s #10.

But Rogers is just one of multiple CAMs to break out this season. Dwight McNeil has had an impressive start to the campaign at Everton. Emile Smith Rowe finally left Arsenal and is getting the freedom he so clearly needed. Each of these players is showing why they deserve a starting role at their respective clubs, as well as putting themselves in the shop window for a future move to one of the world’s richest clubs.

Dwight McNeil

It’s not always easy to be a standout star on a near-relegation side. We’ve seen it in the past (most recently, Jack Grealish), but it’s a unique role that only a few can fill. Dwight McNeil very well might be one of those few. Since joining Everton in the summer of 2022, he’s only gotten better, accumulating 16.6 xA and 7.5 xG in Premier League play in that time. It’s been the first few games of this season, however, where he’s begun to show the confidence and consistent ability to be one of the best playmakers in the Premier League.

In both of McNeil’s first two seasons with Everton, he was out on the wing, like he was at Burnley; now, however, he’s being deployed at central attacking midfield. This works great for not only McNeil but also Everton’s literal #10, Iliman Ndiaye. McNeil is not an all-encompassing creative midfielder — he doesn’t suck the ball in and charge down the middle — he tends to make runs wide, allowing space for Ndiaye to cut in. Here’s an example of it in practice against Leicester two weeks ago:

Ndiaye receives the ball out wide and instantly looks to start the counter, dribbling 15 or so yards before laying the ball off to an incoming McNeil. Ndiaye continues his run through the space that was just vacated as McNeil takes the ball in stride and carries it to the touchline, drawing Leicester’s defense behind him. Seemingly cornered, McNeil breaks out some nifty footwork and splits through two Palace players, opening up time and space:

Faes sees his teammates beat and goes to pressure the ball, exposing a full-sprint Ndiaye in behind. McNeil makes the pass, having dismantled Leicester’s midfield and defense in one fell swoop.

This freedom in the midfield has unlocked something in Dwight McNeil that we’ve never fully seen before. He’s been on a tear, with 2 goals and 3 assists through 7 games, and he seems unstoppable.

On the press, he’s been excellent: against Aston Villa last month he dispossessed Amadou Onana, carried the ball 40 yards to the top of the box, and slotted one past Emiliano Martinez at the back post. His free-flowing, fluid style of play is out of place in a lower table side, and will certainly be catching the attention of some of the big teams this season.

And he’s not just good for an Everton player, he’s been one of the best players in the league this campaign — McNeil ranks 1st in xA, 2nd in crosses, and lands in the 99th percentile in StatsBomb’s Pass OBV metric with 0.28 per 90. That’s pretty damn good.

And, y’know, he has this in his locker too:

Emile Smith Rowe

Purchased in August for £27 million from Arsenal, Emile Smith Rowe is likely the most well-known of these three players. Despite first breaking into the senior Arsenal squad in the 2018/19 season, Smith Rowe never really cemented his spot in the team, with injuries hampering his progress and better players ahead of him.

Since moving to Fulham, however, he’s been given significant freedom in his role and appears confident. Part of that is his partnership with Andreas Pereira: in Fulham’s 4-2-3-1, Pereira has the license to drift forward, essentially joining Smith Rowe as a second 10 in possession. This allows Smith Rowe to focus more on the left side, and he makes the most of it, mostly operating in the half-space and opening up seams in defenses.

A sprint on the counter and calm finish against Leicester: goal. A run in behind against West Ham: assist. A give and go, one-time finish against Newcastle: another goal.

While Smith Rowe’s production hasn’t been out of this world, his ability to almost instantly gel with this Fulham side is impressive; at moments, watching Alex Iwobi and Smith Rowe combine on the left is like watching teammates that have played together for years (although their times at Arsenal overlapped for about a season, Smith Rowe barely played that year).

He’s also, undeniably, playing some of the best football of his life. He’s currently above a 90% completion rate on passes for the first time in his career, while also setting a personal best in progressive passes per 90. With 0.45 xG+xA per 90 and 2 G+A in his last 3 Premier League matches, the 24-year-old is only just gaining momentum. If he can stay healthy and continue improving his game in an environment where he isn’t constantly fighting just to keep his spot, don’t be surprised if heads start turning. He’s always had the quality, now he’s getting the chance to display it in a squad that was built with him in mind.

Morgan Rogers

“A maverick” is a good way to describe Morgan Rogers, and that’s how his former Elite Development coach at Manchester City described him when talking to Sky Sports earlier this month. He isn’t a Phil Foden or Cole Palmer — nor is he trying to be — but ever since assuming the role vacated by an injured Emiliano Buendia, Rogers has been lighting it up for Villa.

At 6’2 (188cm), Rogers isn’t a small player, but he knows how to use his physicality well. He doesn’t let being on the taller end of #10s impact his ball control or passing, if anything, it gives him a boost when fending off defenders, especially on the turn. As such, he’s a proficient ball carrier, leading the Champions League in successful take-ons with 9 so far. Here’s a great example in Villa’s recent Champions League matchup against Bayern Munchen (which they won 1-0):

Rogers receives the ball just outside his own box, bringing it down with his thigh. Sensing Kim Min-Jae behind him, he turns, takes a touch around the incoming defender, and fends off Kim’s challenge before continuing his run. Now, with acres of green ahead and Ollie Watkins making a run into the space vacated by Kim’s step, Rogers has a choice: continue his run or play the ball.

Seeing Upamecano’s back turned, he plays a perfectly weighted pass into Watkins and the striker is off. While this play didn’t lead to a goal, it’s a great example of the type of quality Rogers has displayed this season. 

At Villa, he’s been deployed in a couple of different ways. Out of possession, Rogers has been used as both a second striker and wide midfielder, depending on the game state. Regardless, he’s almost always central in the attack, whether it’s making diagonal runs behind Watkins or receiving line-breaking passes from the double pivot before turning and spraying the ball out wide. In the Wolves game, this worked particularly well, with Villa moving into a 3-2-3-2 in possession after 60 minutes, and Maatsen coming on to advance down the left. It paid off on the third goal, when Watkins dropped to provide options for Maatsen, and Rogers was allowed to waltz in behind, entirely unmarked. Then, maintaining his composure, he unselfishly slid a ball across to Duran to finish the game off.  

Even when playing in a more condensed game, Rogers has shown his skill, putting in a solid shift against Ipswich and being in the right place at the right time to score one for himself. Although he certainly has a lot to work on — he can sometimes be passive out of possession and unwilling to put in challenges — he is an exciting player with a bright future ahead of him. With 1.3 xA this season and a strong hold on Villa’s #10 spot, it’s only up from here for Morgan Rogers.

All three midfielders have been on fire to start the season, but overall, it’s undeniably Dwight McNeil that’s taken center stage in the up-and-coming playmaker market, and for good reason. Despite his team sitting just outside of the relegation zone, McNeil was nominated for Premier League Player of the Month while his strike against Crystal Palace was also nominated for Goal of the Month. His performances have been consistently impressive and with Everton barely scraping by this summer’s FFP deadline, don’t be surprised if you see his name connected to some big clubs next June. The Toffees paid just £14 million for him two years ago and could easily double or even triple that fee, and with McNeil’s stellar profile, anticipate several clubs willing to bite.

While Rogers has dominated the national conversation, Aston Villa seems keen on keeping him and he’s unlikely to find a better opportunity elsewhere. McNeil, on the other hand, could become disillusioned with an underperforming Everton and go in search of greener grasses (the Jack Grealish comparison isn’t terrible in this aspect either). Whether it’s a rich English club that pays big to keep him in the Premier League or a Bayern/Olise-like transfer that offers him the chance to go abroad, McNeil has an exciting future ahead of him.

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