3 things to watch for in UEFA Champions League this week

Champions League and Europa League are back to their normal schedules this week. It’s a bit weird that the new format means half the teams don’t play every week, but at least we have CL on Tuesday and Wednesday, then EL on Thursday, as God intended.

For those of you interested in betting-related content, Ted has market-implied model numbers and picks for the Champions League for the first time this week, as well as the same for midweek fixtures in the EFL Championship. Today (Tuesday, October 1) is the last day that the premium betting newsletter is £10/month, and you can sign up here. —KM

First big test for João Neves

I’m sure that because I’ve singled out João Neves as my player of interest for this game, Fabián Ruiz will slide back into a DM role for Paris Saint-Germain, and our boy will start from the bench. But if Luis Enrqiue opts for tactical consistency instead, I’m very excited to see what the 20-year-old can do in the hardest game of his career to date, away to Arsenal on Tuesday.

Neves has a team-leading 5 assists in Ligue 1 this year, and some of his passing numbers are off the charts. His 0.2 xG assisted and 8.75 deep progressions per 90 are as good as it gets, to go along with a very slick 92% passing accuracy. StatsBomb’s OBV metric doesn’t see his passing as particularly high value, though.

His defensive numbers suggest at the very least that he is fit and not lazy, though pretty much any competent player could post big interceptions and possession-adjusted pressures numbers as a DM for PSG.

There are two big things I’m looking for from him against Arsenal:

1. Does his usage remain as high in this game? PSG have only played opponents with inferior talent who defend relatively deep and give Neves space to get on the ball. I’m curious to see if PSG continue to play through him constantly against a more positive opponent.

2. How does he deal with really good players running at him? Last year, Manuel Ugarte was lavished with praise in French media for 2 months until he made a mess in his pants in a Champions League game against AC Milan. Enrique never trusted him after that, and he was sold on. Lots of players can rack up big numbers in Ligue 1 on PSG. Slowing down counters and avoiding bad turnovers against Arsenal is something entirely different.

Up to this point, PSG appear to have pulled off a coup by beating other superclubs to signing Neves for €60m from Benfica. But as they say in the other kind of football from my side of the pond: PSG ain’t played nobody. Arsenal is somebody.

How good are Celtic?

Speaking of ain’t playing nobody, Celtic get their first big test of the season against Borussia Dortmund. They’ve done well in their other two games that were almost real games — 5-1 over Slovan Bratislava in the first round of this competition, and 3-0 over Rangers in the Old Firm derby — but Dortmund should be a big step up.

Uh… should. I’m actually not that sure, because Dortmund’s defense is absolute butt at the moment. They had some genuine comedy defending on display in a 5-1 loss to Stuttgart, and they conceded 2 goals in the opening half-hour to Bochum this weekend before putting together a nice comeback win.

Generally, it is a bad idea to play an ambitious attacking style and high defensive line if you cannot press worth a damn and your defenders are not individually very talented. BVB’s PPDA, defensive distance and aggression are in line with what you’d expect from a solid mid-block team that prioritizes a good defensive shape, but they’re bad for what they aspire to be.

This combination has led to Dortmund conceding a lot of really high quality shots, with their xG per shot against looking especially appalling.

Celtic, meanwhile, play a pretty risky attacking style themselves, with their fullbacks often getting really high up the pitch. I haven’t looked up the over-under on this one, and you should subscribe to Ted’s premium newsletter if you want to know how to bet that, but I am predicting goals for both teams here. Probably multiple. Something like 4-3 would not even be weird and exceptional.

Juventenaccio is back

When Juventus hired Thiago Motta, I predicted that they’d be really good at getting well-controlled 1-0 victories, using possession as defense. They are yet to achieve that result in Serie A, scoring three 3-0 victories, and also recording three 0-0 draws. They’re punishing the bad teams they play and failing to score against the good ones.

Juve’s defensive numbers are as good as those six consecutive clean sheets imply. Their 0.36 xG conceded per 90 and 0.05 xG per shot against are exceptional; they are likely the best defensive team in the world at the moment.

But the attack. STINKY.

It is very possible that Motta has focused heavily on solidifying the team’s defense, believing that he can start developing their attacking patterns of play and creativity once a solid foundation is in place. Or maybe he’s just a very good defensive coach with limited attacking ideas. He’s a Barcelona academy alum who also had the best years of his career under Jose Mourinho, so I’m willing to consider both possibilities here.

I’d love to see some progression against RB Leipzig, a very talented but currently shaky team. They’re 3rd in the Bundesliga with an undefeated record, but they got outplayed by Atlético Madrid in round 1 of this competition. Their xG differential is currently negative, but they ran out 4-0 winners on the weekend against Augsburg with all of Benjamin Šeško, Loïs Openda and Xavi Simons scoring in the same game for the first time this season.

Leipzig feel like a perfect gatekeeper team. You should beat them if you’re one of the contenders for the Champions League, and they’re good enough to beat you if you’re not. Time to find out what Juventus is.

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