1 player to keep an eye on in every Champions League game

Who first coined the term “business end of the season?” Was the beginning not real business? And what is a Business End anyway? Regardless, once we’re into March and the Champions League knockout stage, we’re at whatever that is.

For more CL knockout stage content, I recommend checking out The Podcast, where Pat and Ted break down the games. Also Pat names a journalist he’d like to fight inside the octagon, so stick around to the end for that. If you’re into gambling, Ted breaks down the odds for these games and the reasoning for his bets over at The Premium Newsletter.

Today, we’re busting out the classic free TTF newsletter format: There are a bunch of good games on, so who are the most interesting players to watch in them? Enjoy. —KM

Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa — Morgan Rogers

Sebastian Bush wrote about Rogers for us earlier in the year, and I think that Rogers has only gotten better at all the stuff Seb describes. He’s also been an even stronger performer in the Champions League than the Prem.

I really like Rogers’ all-around game. He’s a threat to dribble, shoot or assist from anywhere, and he’s proven competent on either wing, as well as his preferred central attacking midfield. I worry that he might not be enough of a specialist at anything to blossom into a true superstar, but this guy should be a solid player for Champions League-level teams for a long time.

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid — Vinícius Júnior

Captain Obvious, sure, but we had to throw one or two proven superstars into this list. There’s been plenty of chatter about Vini and Kylian Mbappe not working great together, and about Vini potentially looking to leave Madrid in the summer, but outside of all the noise he’s still one of the world’s best attackers.

He’s been slightly better in Champions League than La Liga, with his shot value jumping off the chart in Europe. That’s because he’s scored three goals from inside the box after beating a defender with a dribble. Anytime Madrid can get Vini running at people in some space off the left, he’s an absolute monster. He might be a smidge below his Ballon d’Or worthy form of last season, but the dropoff has been minimal.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille — Lucas Chevalier

Goalkeeper mentioned! Lucas Chevalier has been one of Europe’s top shot-stoppers in both league and continental play this season. He was Lille’s man of the match this weekend against Paris Saint-Germain despite letting in four goals — he got absolutely shelled, and saved 2 goals above the average keeper based on post-shot xG.

Chevalier’s average claiming and passing ability might put Europe’s richest teams off making a bid for him in the summer, but he could certainly improve the goalkeeping of tons of teams. Having a save percentage 10% above expected in Champions League is nuts.

PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal — William Saliba

Center backs — especially those that are much better defenders than passers — are difficult to evaluate with event data. This gets even tougher when it comes to defenders who are on teams that have a lot of the ball and don’t do a ton of defending deep in their own half. Saliba is both of those things, and as such, his radar doesn’t look particularly sexy.

But you can see the two things that really stick out — 81% aerial wins and 88% tackles won in Champions League. That’s a proper defender, none of this fancy crap. (There’s a fancy crap defender featured in the next section).

Feyenoord vs. Inter Milan — Alessandro Bastoni

Now here’s an entirely different kind of center back: One who’s 6’3” (1.90m) and refuses to jump. You’re massive, just go head the ball lad.

Anyway, Alessandro Bastoni is probably my favorite ball-playing center back to watch. He’s also an incredible one-on-one defender on the ground. Spiritually, this man is a 5’9” central midfielder. The way he carries and hits long balls forward absolutely rocks. I think Bastoni and Saliba would be an absolute dream partnership, if someone would like to make that happen.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool — Désiré Doué

I don’t even know if Doué is going to start against Liverpool. It wouldn’t be surprising if PSG decided that they needed some more defensive presence in midfield and started all three of Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha and João Neves. But Doué has been absolutely balling in the No. 10 role.

He recorded a goal and an assist against Lille at the weekend, and his Champions League numbers are bananas. He’s actually the No. 1 player in the competition for OBV among players with more than 300 minutes played. Yeah, he’s been stat farming as a substitute against tired, overmatched teams, but anyone who can do this in any situation in Champions League is good as hell.

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen — Michael Olise

Quite a few English teams were disappointed when the former Crystal Palace star chose Bayern over staying home, but he appears to have made the perfect decision for his career. He’s instantly struck up some great chemistry with Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala, and dude is just a monster in every way.

He scores from headers, dribbling past defenders, through balls and passes into feet. He assists from through balls, crosses, cutbacks, set pieces, anything. And he looks equally comfortable being a supporting player to other stars or taking the game over himself. I always rated Olise and thought he was a good signing for Bayern, but I have to admit I am surprised at how quickly he’s become one of the best players on the planet.

Benfica vs. Barcelona — Raphinha

Lamine Yamal surpassing this guy and becoming the superstar Barcelona revolves around is inevitable. It might even happen this month. But Raphinha has undeniably been Barcelona’s most effective player this season. In August, the club was begging him to take an offer from a Saudi or English club to leave. Now, they’d be nuts to sell him.

We wouldn’t be The Stats Nerds if we didn’t point out that Raphinha is overperforming his xG to a pretty absurd degree in Champions League, scoring 8 times from 2.76 xG. But his 0.36 xG per 90 is still extremely good, and he’s supplementing that with 3 assists from exactly 3 xA.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”